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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Aug 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Aug 2024	217	010
17 Aug 2024	213	011
18 Aug 2024	209	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.8-flare, with peak time 17:35 UTC on August 15 and is associated with NOAA AR 3786 (beta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) are the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3780 and NOAA AR 3781 have started to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3789 has turned into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Корональні діри

A positive high-latitude polarity coronal hole is transitioning the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. For this coronal hole, no impact at Earth is expected from its associated high-speed stream.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 319 km/s to 382 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours. The solar wind is expected to become perturbed late on August 17 or on August 18 due to the expected arrival of an ICME.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 201, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	227
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	164 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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