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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Sep 2024	212	007
11 Sep 2024	208	010
12 Sep 2024	206	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate with three M1 flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3814 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 83) was the most active, producing two of those flares including the brightest (an M3.4 at 9 Sep 17:08 UTC). NOAA AR 3811 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 75) produced the weakest flare, an M1.0 at 9 Sep 12:17 UTC. Isolated M-class flare activity is expected in the next 24 hours, either from NOAA AR 3814 or 3811. A small chance of a low X-class flare from the same AR also exists.

Корональні викиди маси

A halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) can seen in LASCO C-2/SOHO images as launched around 10 Sep 01:00 UTC. It originates from NOAA active region 3814 and is associated the M1.2 flare that peaked at 10 Sep 00:28 and the type II radio emission at 9 Sep 23:45 UTC. Preliminary analysis indicates a speed of 600 km/s and arrival either at the second half of 12 Sep or the first half of 13 Sep.

Корональні діри

A northern Coronal Hole (CH) with negative polarity stared crossing the central meridian during the past 24 hours. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective on 13 Sep.

Сонячний вітер

Solar Wind (SW) conditions resemble the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed increased from around 400 km/s to 480 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 13 to 3 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -8 and 12 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed predominately towards the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to follow the same pattern for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3 and K BEL 1 to 3). They are expected to remain at the same levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, registered a short-lived proton event took place between Sep 9 16:40 UTC and Sep 10 04:20 UTC. The proton flux levels are expected to remain below the alert level in the next 24 hours, however there is a small chance of another proton event.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 151, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	215
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	156 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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