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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 21 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Sep 2024	154	011
22 Sep 2024	152	011
23 Sep 2024	150	005

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels. There are seven numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3828 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3825 (beta- gamma-delta) being the most complex ones. NOAA AR 3831 (beta-delta) has exhibited an increase in complexity of its underlying magnetic field configuration and NOAA AR 3827 (beta) has exhibited some decay. Two new active regions were numbered, namely NOAA AR 3833 (beta) and NOAA AR 3834 (beta), and have produced some low levels of activity. NOAA AR 3824 has continued to contribute to the low levels of activity from behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with 35% chances of M-class flares and 5% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered background slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field peaked at 7.3 nT with a minimum Bz of - 4.4 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 344 km/s to 483 km/s. The B field phi angle has switched from the positive to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be predominantly at slow background solar wind in the upcoming days with chances of a weak connection to a mild high speed stream related to a positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with small chances for isolated active periods are expected over the next days.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period over the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 127, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	133
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	128 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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