Перегляд архіву середа, 25 вересня 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Sep 2024	172	038
26 Sep 2024	172	019
27 Sep 2024	172	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. NOAA ARs 3828 (beta), and 3833 (beta) and 3835 (beta-gamma) were the most active ARs in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3836 produced the strongest flare of the day, a C4 flare with peak at 07:56 UTC, this AR has a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration and has grown in size in the last hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Solar wind conditions at Earth show the arrival of the expected (mild) high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, with solar wind speed up to 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 12 nT and Bz down to -10 nT. In the next 24 hours, more disturbed solar wind conditions can be expected with the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the CME from 22 September.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel from 3 to 5). Up to moderate storm conditions could occur in the next 24 hours due to an ICME arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has been below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	191
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	138 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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