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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Oct 2024	225	016
10 Oct 2024	223	070
11 Oct 2024	221	042

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with one X1.8 flare, peaking at 01:56 UTC on October 09. It was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 217 (NOAA AR 3848, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC SG 217 (NOAA AR 3848). SIDC SG 254 (NOAA AR 3841) has rotated behind the west limb. SIDC SG 257 (NOAA AR 3842) is currently rotating behind the west limb but may still exhibit flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Further analysis of the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) detected around 20:30 UTC on October 07 suggests the possibility of a glancing blow arrival at Earth early on October 11. Further analysis of the CME detected around 05:40 UTC on October 08, associated with a large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant, suggests no impact on Earth. A halo CME was detected in LASCO/C2 data around 02:30 UTC on October 09. It is most likely related to the X1.8 flare peaking at 01:56 UTC on October 09 and a large filament eruption west of SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA AR 3848). Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of 1900 km/s. An associated type IV radio emission was detected, starting at 01:43 UTC on October 09. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth around UTC midday on October 10. A CME was detected in LASCO/C2 data around 12:30 UTC on October 08, lifting off the east limb. It is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

A northern, negative polarity coronal hole has started to cross the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from UTC midnight on October 11, but may be indistinguishable from an expected coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival on October 10.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions were still enhanced during the last 24 hours but are gradually returning to the slow wind regime. The maximum speed values were around 490 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 14 nT and has decreased to around 6 nT. The Bz component varied between -10 nT and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with further enhancements possible due to the expected arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed at 02:30 UTC on October 09.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at active levels (NOAA Kp 4), with a minor storm interval (NOAA Kp 5-) between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC on October 09. Geomagnetic conditions locally varied between unsettled and active levels (K BEL 3 to 4) over the last 24 hours. Mostly active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 4) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours. Moderate to major storm conditions, with possible severe storm intervals, are expected starting from UTC afternoon on October 10, due to the anticipated arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that lifted off at 02:30 on October 09.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has exceeded the 10 pfu threshold since 05:00 UTC on October 09, marking a minor solar radiation storm and escalating to moderate radiation storm levels around 07:30 UTC on October 09. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the threshold for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 136, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	220
10cm solar flux	225
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	041
Estimated Ap	049
Estimated international sunspot number	144 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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