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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Oct 2024	170	007
17 Oct 2024	165	028
18 Oct 2024	165	029

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with several M-class flares. The largest flares were a M3.7-flare, with peak time 03:24 UTC on October 16 2024 and a M3.7 flare with peak time 03:42 on October 16 2024 both from SIDC Sunspot Group 283 NOAA AR 3854 (beta-gamma). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 281 et 283 (NOAA AR 3852 and 3854 resp.) are the most complex AR (beta-gamma).The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images

Корональні діри

The positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole finished crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 17. A small negative polarity mid latitude coronal hole starts to cross the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 19.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 9 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to become slightly enhanced on 17 OCT, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian from 14 OCT till 16 OCT.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 3) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active levels on the 17 OCT, due to a high-speed stream arrival.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	137
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	119 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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