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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Oct 2024	170	018
20 Oct 2024	175	017
21 Oct 2024	175	022

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with three M-class flares all from SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 283 (NOAA AR 3854). The largest flare was a M6.5-flare, with peak time 06:56 UTC on October 19 2024, from SIDC Sunspot Group 283 NOAA AR 3854 (beta-gamma). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 290 (NOAA AR 3856) is the most complex AR (beta- gamma-delta).The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Корональні діри

The small equatorial positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole has finished crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 21.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with a speed that slightly increased from around 360 to 440 km/s and with a interplanetary magnetic field increased from around 9 nT to around 12 nT and the Bz reaching a minimum value of -11 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24h.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active and reached minor storm levels (Kp=4,67) between 00:00 and 03:00 OCT 19.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 132, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	036
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	134 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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