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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 28 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Oct 2024	248	013
29 Oct 2024	250	013
30 Oct 2024	252	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. There are over twelve active regions on the visible solar disc. The strongest activity was M2.8-flare, with peak time 23:24 UTC on Oct 27th associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878), magnetic type beta. This region also produced an M1.3-flare with peak time 04:09 UTC on Oct 28th and was responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24h. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872), magnetic type beta-gamma-delta, and SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869), magnetic type beta-gamma, are the largest and most complex regions on the visible disc, but have been relatively quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with 85% chances of M-class flares and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered a fast-forward shock around 04:17 UTC on Oct 28th, possibly marking the anticipated arrival of a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) related to X1.8-flaring, which lifted off the solar surface on Oct 26th. The interplanetary magnetic field increased up to 26.6 nT with a minimum Bz reaching -19 nT. The solar wind velocity increased from 429 km/s to almost 600 km/s. Over the past 24 hours the B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) and the solar wind velocity was in the range of 341 km/s to 616 km/s. The solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours are expected to remain perturbed under the ongoing influence of the interplanetary CME (ICME).

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quiet to unsettled and globally reached minor storm levels following the arrival of the ICME. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions with chances for further isolated minor levels are expected for the next 24 hours due to ongoing ICME influence. Most quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected thereafter.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at moderate radiation storm levels (S2) due to an ongoing proton event. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at moderate radiation storm levels on Oct 28th and start slowly decreasing towards minor radiation storm levels (S1) on Oct 29th, pending no new strong eruptive activity from the Sun.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 251, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	246
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	243 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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