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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 02 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Nov 2024	245	018
03 Nov 2024	237	025
04 Nov 2024	235	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 4 M-class flares. The largest flare was an M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2466) peaking on November 01 at 14:31 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Regions 3878). This region along with SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869) are the largest and most complex regions on disk, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 295 (NOAA Active Region 3871) re-emerged, while Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Region 3876) grew over the period and both also produced low level M-class flares. These two regions are expected to rotate over the west limb over the next 24 hours. A new region, numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 303 (NOAA Active Region 3881) currently located at S09E26, also emerged and has a Beta magnetic configuration, but was quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field continued to be slightly elevated, and increased further from 09:00 UTC November 02, reaching a maximum value of 12 nT with a minimum Bz of -12 nT. The solar wind velocity ranged between 373 and 508 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the two possible high speed stream arrivals and a predicted weak glancing blow CME arrival from late on November 03.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quite to unsettled. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Active conditions, with possible isolated minor storm intervals, are expected for November 03 to November 04.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and was below the 10 pfu minor radiation storm threshold but remains above background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue decrease towards nominal levels over the 24 hours but there is an ongoing chance for new enhancements related to anticipated high levels of solar eruptive activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 209, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	256
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	211 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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