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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 04 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
04 Nov 2024237010
05 Nov 2024240010
06 Nov 2024244010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 9 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M3.79 flare (SIDC Flare 2488) peaking on November 04 at 01:40 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883), which produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. This region together with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk, classified as magnetic type beta- gamma-delta. A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 306 (NOAA Active Region 3885) currently located at S10W43 has emerged unto the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA Active Region 3886) currently located at S06E65 has rotated on the visible disk. Four regions are expected to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off around 00:36 UTC on November 04 from the north-east quadrant. Further analysis of the event is ongoing.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 9 nT with a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The solar wind velocity ranged between 402 and 470 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to the slow solar wind regime over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to active (Kp 1-4 and K BEL 1-4 ). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 194, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux241
AK Chambon La Forêt028
AK Wingst015
Estimated Ap012
Estimated international sunspot number214 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxКінецьLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
03151115241529----M1.474/3869
03173817531758----M1.3--/3883
04005200570102----M1.588/3883III/2
04010501400203----M3.888/3883II/1VI/3IV/1
04033803450353----M1.191/3886
04040604150423----M1.088/3883
04043104340438N17W11M1.4SF78/3878
04070207080721S09E43M1.3SN88/3883III/2
04082908400847S07E42M1.2SF88/3883
04100710171025S07E41M1.6SN88/3883

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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