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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Nov 2024	235	008
09 Nov 2024	230	011
10 Nov 2024	226	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 3 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M2.32 flare peaking on November 07 at 15:06 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883). A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) and SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) are the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) has started to rotate over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 310 (NOAA Active Region 3888) has turned into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 07:36 UTC on November 07, show a possible glancing blow arrival early on November 12.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity high-latitude coronal hole continues to transition the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole continues to transition the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth around November 09.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) came under the influence of an ICME. A shock was registered in the solar wind data around 14:20 UTC on November 17, possibly associated with a CME that lifted off the solar surface 00:36 on November 04. The interplanetary magnetic field quickly increased from 3 nT to 7 nT. The solar wind velocity increased from 380 km/s to almost 420 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock jumped from 7.5 ppcc to around 22.37 ppcc. After the ICME arrival the interplanetary magnetic field B, reached a maximum value of 11 nT with a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The solar wind velocity declined from 444 km/s to around 350 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) until switching over to the negative sector around 23:30 UTC on November 07. The solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced again over the next 24 hours due to the arrival of a high-speed stream.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions locally (K BEL 4) and quite to unsettled (Kp 1-3). Active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 crossed the 1000 pfu threshold at 15:30 UTC on November 07, decreased below the threshold at 18:10 UTC on November 07 and is expected to remain below the threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 202, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	239
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	218 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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