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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Jan 20 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Jan 2025	235	019
21 Jan 2025	235	013
22 Jan 2025	236	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C8.2 flare peaking on Jan 19 at 17:08 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 342 (NOAA Active Region 3959). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 342) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. SIDC 346 is the most complex region (beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Сонячний вітер

Earth continues to be under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 17. The solar wind speed ranged from 415 km/s to 655 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -10 nT and 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 10 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at unsettled to active conditions (NOAA Kp 3 to 4) and locally at quiet to active conditions (K_BEL 2 to 4), due to the continued impact of high speed streams from the elongated, negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 17. We expect unsettled to active conditions (K 3 to 4) in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. However, greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 17:30 UTC and dropped below the threshold level at 23:40 UTC in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 196, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	234
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	147 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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