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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Mar 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Mar 2025	155	010
07 Mar 2025	160	006
08 Mar 2025	165	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only a small number of C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 387 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4007, Beta magnetic configuration) and SIDC Sunspot Group 427 (NOAA AR 4016, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced all the flaring activity of the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 423 (NOAA AR 4012, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) is the most complex AR and is expected to produce most of the flaring activity of the next 24 hours and likely M-class flare(s). The same AR has also a chance to produce an X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A Large coronal hole (CH) with negative polarity (SIDC CH 88) started crossing the central solar meridian during the past 24 hours. The associated High Speed Stream (HSS) has possibly been observed by the MAG instrument onboard Solar Orbiter (located at 0.56 AU from the Sun and 11.7 degrees east of Earth). The HSS was first detected by MAG on 5 Mar and this likely indicates an HSS arrival at Earth on 8 or 9 Mar.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed fluctuated between 340 and 480 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field (B) ranged between 2 to 9 nT in the last 24 hours. Its North-South component (Bz) registered values between -6 and 8 nT during the same period. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3 and K BEL 2 to 3) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to remain at this level of activity.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, marginally exceed the 1000 pfu threshold on 5 Mar between 19:10 and 21:30 UTC. For the next 24 hours it is expected to remain below but close to the threshold. The 24h electron fluence remain at normal levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at normal levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 134, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Mar 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	145 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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