Vaata laupäev, 21 märts 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
COR
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SDF number 080 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 MAR 1998
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W82) PRODUCED
A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 21/1826Z. TWO UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY
BURSTS WERE DETECTED AS WELL, A C1 AT 21/0252Z AND A C1 AT 21/0531Z.
REGION 8179 IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
REGION 8180 (S29W71), SPOTLESS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, SHOWED A
RE-EMERGED, REVERSE POLARITY BXO SPOT GROUP TODAY. REGION 8185
(S24E71) CONTINUED TO GROW AS IT APPEARED OVER THE EAST LIMB.
INDICATIONS ARE THERE ARE MORE SPOTS TO FOLLOW IN THIS REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SPOTS GROUPS, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE
DISK, WERE QUIET AND RELATIVELY STABLE.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8179 STILL HAS GOOD C-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL, A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE. REGION 8185 HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS
ACTIVITY, A SMALL CHANCE OF M-CLASS FLARING, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM AT ALL LATITUDES FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING BEGAN JUST AFTER
21/0900Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE THE RESULT OF A CME INDICATED BY THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF A 23 DEGREE FILAMENT IN THE SE QUADRANT, DETECTED
AT 16/1147Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS,
THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR
STORMING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 MARkuni 24 MAR
Klass M | 45% | 25% | 25% |
Klass X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 MAR 126
Prognoositud 22 MAR-24 MAR 124/122/120
90 päeva keskmine 21 MAR 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAR 008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAR 028/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAR-24 MAR 015/018-010/012-015/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 MAR kuni 24 MAR
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 20% |
Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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