Vaata esmaspäev, 28 juuni 1999 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jun 28 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 179 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 JUN 1999

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8611 (S25E47) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE DISK TODAY AND PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C6/1F AT 1934Z. THIS GROUP EXHIBITED VERY BRIGHT PLAGE ALL DAY AND IS GROWING STEADILY. REGION 8598 (N22W25) IS STILL THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER ONE SUBFLARE, IN SPITE OF A DELTA SPOT NEAR REGION CENTER. THIS GROUP SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF MAGNETIC FLUX AND IS CLEARLY ON THE DECLINE. A PARTIAL HALO CME WAS REPORTED BY LASCO THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNATURE IN EIT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SOLAR DISK. THESE EVENTS WERE ALSO TIME COINCIDENT WITH YESTERDAY'S M1 FLARE FROM REGION 8592 AT N23W25.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8598 AND 8611 ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8602 (N18E08), AND 8603 (S15E18) MIGHT ALSO CONTRIBUTE, GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW GROWTH TREND IN THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. YESTERDAY'S ACTIVE CONDITIONS DECLINED TO QUIET AROUND 28/0000Z. AROUND 28/0400Z THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY BEGAN TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 900 KM/S BY 0510Z. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RESPONDED WITH A PERIOD OF MAJOR STORM FROM 0300-0600Z, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM PERIOD FROM 0600-0900Z. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SHOWED SOME MILDLY NEGATIVE BZ FROM 0400-0600Z BUT RETURNED TO NOMINAL LEVELS THEREAFTER. IN RESPONSE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ALSO CALMED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 0900Z THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE HIGH SPEED AND VERY LOW DENSITY SEEN WITH THIS SOLAR WIND EVENT, IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT ACE OBSERVED THE RAREFACTION REGION BEHIND THE PARTIAL HALO CME OF 24 JUNE, WHICH WAS KNOWN TO BE DIRECTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE SUN-EARTH LINE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE ON THE SECOND DAY. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY, BUT THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS BECAUSE OF THE PARTIAL HALO CME OF THE 27TH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 JUNkuni 01 JUL
Klass M55%50%45%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       28 JUN 197
  Prognoositud   29 JUN-01 JUL  180/175/170
  90 päeva keskmine        28 JUN 144
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUN  015/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUN-01 JUL  012/018-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 JUN kuni 01 JUL
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%15%20%
Väike torm05%05%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%15%20%
Väike torm05%05%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%05%

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