SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. SEVERAL SUBFLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD, A FEW OF WHICH REACHED C-CLASS. REGION 8771 (S17E12) WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. IT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND MAINTAINED A MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE, POSSIBLY INCLUDING A DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8765 (S13W47) WAS STABLE, BUT REMAINED THE LARGEST AND MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX GROUP ON THE DISK WITH STRONG DELTA CONFIGURATIONS OBSERVED WITHIN ITS INTERMEDIATE AND TRAILER SPOTS. REGION 8766 (N18W25) SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH AND MAINTAINED A MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE, POSSIBLY INCLUDING A DELTA CONFIGURATION WITHIN ITS TRAILER SPOTS. REGION 8759 (N12W92) WAS STABLE AS IT DEPARTED THE WEST LIMB. NEW REGION 8776 (S31E24) WAS NUMBERED.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8765, 8766, AND 8771 EACH APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE DURING THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FROM REGION 8765.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. A UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIOD OCCURRED DURING 20/0100 - 0300Z WITH MINOR STORM LEVELS DETECTED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY FOLLOWED A BRIEF INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY ONE IN RESPONSE TO RECENT CME ACTIVITY AND AGAIN ON DAY THREE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.

  Vaadeldud       20 NOV 204
  Prognoositud   21 NOV-23 NOV  200/200/190
  90 päeva keskmine        20 NOV 167

OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 NOV  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV  015/018-012/015-015/018