Vaata reede, 10 november 2000 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 315 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Nov 2000

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C6/1f from Region 9225 (S20W48) at 09/2122Z. There appears to be some gradual flux emergence in this region. The rest of today's activity consisted of a few low-level C-class events. Two new regions were assigned today, Region 9229 (N04E70) and Region 9230 (N05W39). Both are simple and stable. There has been a noticeable decline in activity and in background levels as regions 9218, 9212, and 9213 rotate around the west limb.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9218 (N21W83) and 9227 (S13E24) appear to be the most likely sources for activity at this time.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels. The field was initially running at unsettled to active levels, but a strong interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 0604Z and was followed promptly by a sudden impulse at 0629Z (measuring 67 nT in Boulder), and a period of minor to major storm level activity (i.e. K-indices of 5 and 6). The solar wind following the shock did not exhibit strongly southward fields, and the result was a weaker disturbance than had been expected, with a decline to active to unsettled during the last nine hours of the period. This shock most likely is the result of the CME associated with the M7 flare of 8 November, and the solar wind signatures are consistent with an interpretation that the Earth received a glancing, rather than a direct blow from the interplanetary disturbance. Event level proton fluxes continued today at the greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV levels. Flux levels declined throughout the period, with current levels (as of 10/2100Z) of 192 pfu and 1.3 pfu at 10 MeV and 100 MeV respectively.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active during the next 24 hours, but there may be with periods of minor to major storm levels, particularly during local nighttime hours. Active levels are expected to continue through the second day and partway through the third day, as effects are expected from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 100 MeV proton event should end within a few hours, but the greater than 10 MeV event is likely to continue into the third day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Novkuni 13 Nov
Klass M35%35%35%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton99%99%70%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       10 Nov 153
  Prognoositud   11 Nov-13 Nov  150/150/150
  90 päeva keskmine        10 Nov 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Nov  010/011
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  030/040
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  025/035-020/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Nov kuni 13 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%40%30%
Väike torm30%30%20%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%25%
Väike torm50%50%40%
Suur-tõsine torm20%20%15%

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