Vaata teisipäev, 30 jaanuar 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 030 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 Jan 2001
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the
day was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 30/0055 UTC. Three
new regions were numbered today: 9330 (N24E67), 9331 (N13E27), and
9332 (N08E24). Region 9330 has produced some low-level subfaint
C-class activity as it rotated into view on the east limb. Regions
9331 and 9332 both emerged with rapid development (currently in
Dao-Beta and Cso-Beta configurations, respectively) but have yet to
produce significant flare activity.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a chance for isolated moderate-level activity from the newly
numbered regions described above, as well as Region 9321 (S06W51),
which remains the largest active region on the disk.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period observed during 30/0300-0600 UTC. The greater-than-10 MeV
proton event, in progress at the end of last period, ended at
30/0035 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, until the anticipated
shock arrival from the CME activity observed on January 28.
Originating event characteristics, associated proton event,
interplanetary particle data profiles from the ACE EPAM instrument,
and predictive model results are all consistent with a likely shock
passage at earth within the next day or so. Active and isolated
minor storming levels are more likely in the geomagnetic field
thereafter, on January 31 and into February 1. Diminished activity
to predominantly unsettled levels are expected by February 2.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 31 Jankuni 02 Feb
Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 Jan 160
Prognoositud 31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/160
90 päeva keskmine 30 Jan 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 Jan 016/013
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/005
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 020/015-012/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 31 Jan kuni 02 Feb
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele