Vaata teisipäev, 10 aprill 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 100 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Apr 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 9415 (S23W19) produced a long-duration X2/3b parallel-ribbon flare at 10/0526 UTC. This flare was associated with a 4000 SFU Tenflare, Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 14-degree filament disappearance, and a fast full-halo CME. Region 9415 showed decay in its trailer spots, but maintained a strong magnetic delta configuration in its leader portion, where a minor increase in spots was noted. Minor growth occurred in Region 9417 (S08W39). It produced a C6/Sf at 10/1451 UTC. Minor growth was also observed in Region 9425 (S25W49). The remaining regions were simply-structured and stable. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9415 is expected to produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event followed today's X2/3b flare. It began at 10/0850 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near 100 PFU at the close of the period and gradually increasing. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux enhancement was also associated with the X2/3b flare. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event began around 10/1200 UTC and continued as the period ended. Thus far, maximum absorption associated with the PCA event has been estimated at 8.5 dB. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
A major geomagnetic storm is expected during 11 - 12 April in response to halo-CMEs observed on 09 - 10 April. Active to major storm levels are expected during this disturbance with brief severe storm levels possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 13 April as the storm subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the period. The PCA event is expected to end during the latter half of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Aprkuni 13 Apr
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X25%25%25%
Prooton90%80%25%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       10 Apr 170
  Prognoositud   11 Apr-13 Apr  165/165/160
  90 päeva keskmine        10 Apr 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Apr  017/019
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  013/009
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  050/040-050/090-020/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Apr kuni 13 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%35%
Väike torm25%25%15%
Suur-tõsine torm45%45%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%25%35%
Väike torm30%30%20%
Suur-tõsine torm50%35%15%

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