Vaata laupäev, 29 september 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 272 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Sep 2001
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been moderate. Two M1/1f flares
were observed -- the first at 28/2125 UTC from Region 9634 (N12W15),
and the second a long duration event at 29/1106 UTC from Region 9636
(N13W02). For the latter event, SOHO/LASCO imagery suggests an
associated faint halo with an earthward-directed component possible.
Region 9628 (S17W62), the largest on the visible disk, also
produced several optical flares with strong C-level enhancements
throughout the first half of the period. New Region 9642 (N03E70)
was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate over the next three days. Isolated major
flares are possible, particularly from Region 9628 and nearby Region
9632 (S18W48).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to active. A 17 nT sudden
impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 29/0940 UTC,
preceded by an earlier shock passage observed on the ACE satellite.
Several active periods occurred through the remainder of the day.
Solar wind speed remains elevated and IMF signatures suggest the
predominant influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The
proton event which began on 25 September remains in progress but
continues to wane, with current 10MeV flux levels at about 25 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly active for the next two days, under the
combined influence of high speed stream effects and possible
transient shock passages from the CME activity of 28 September.
Isolated minor storm conditions may occur at higher latitudes during
this period. Today's CME activity may further result in additional
shock passage effects on day three. The proton event in progress is
expected to end within the next 24 to 36 hours, barring further
enhancement from any major flares.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Sepkuni 02 Oct
Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Prooton | 99% | 50% | 20% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 Sep 240
Prognoositud 30 Sep-02 Oct 240/240/235
90 päeva keskmine 29 Sep 175
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Sep 010/013
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 Sep 015/020
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 020/030-020/020-018/018
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Sep kuni 02 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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