Vaata esmaspäev, 14 oktoober 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 287 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Oct 2002
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate. A long-duration
M2/Sf event occurred early in the period peaking at 14/0010 UTC,
from bright plage just east of the large spot in Region 159
(S11E57). This event was accompanied by a large CME evident in
SOHO/LASCO imagery, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of about
850 km/s. Region 159 also produced a C4/Sf event at 14/0945 UTC. A
Type-II radio sweep of estimated velocity 743 km/s was observed at
14/1429 UTC, in association with a small impulsive C1 flare, and
followed shortly thereafter by a very long-lived enhancement in
x-ray flux that began at about 14/1520 UTC, and remained in progress
at the end of the period. Available H-alpha imagery revealed no
apparent source for this activity, and SOHO EIT and LASCO data were
mostly unavailable for the period. The lack of subsequent particle
enhancement from this potential CME event seems to suggest an
east-limb source for this activity. New Region 160 (S20E54) was
numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
extended interval of active conditions, with an isolated period of
major storming at high latitudes, appeared to occur primarily due to
a sustained strong southward orientation of Bz, and a slow increase
in solar wind speed. Other solar wind data suggest an overall
pattern of a CIR evolving toward to a weak high speed stream pattern
near the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the early part of the forecast
period, with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of day
one and into day two. By day three, some CME passage effects may
occur in response to the solar activity described above, and may
cause isolated active or minor storm conditions by the end of the
period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Octkuni 17 Oct
Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Prooton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Oct 181
Prognoositud 15 Oct-17 Oct 175/175/165
90 päeva keskmine 14 Oct 182
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Oct 006/010
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Oct 017/026
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 015/018-012/012-015/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Oct kuni 17 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 30% |
Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 35% |
Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele