Vaata laupäev, 5 aprill 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 095 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Apr 2003
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62)
produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at
05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count
but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a
weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate
spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage
region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline
as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was
numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324
and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500
km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar
wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a
weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in
isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Aprkuni 08 Apr
Klass M | 35% | 25% | 30% |
Klass X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Prooton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Apr 137
Prognoositud 06 Apr-08 Apr 135/130/120
90 päeva keskmine 05 Apr 135
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Apr 013/026
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Apr 020/025
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Apr kuni 08 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 45% | 40% | 35% |
Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 45% | 40% | 35% |
Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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