Vaata esmaspäev, 7 aprill 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 097 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Apr 2003
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85)
produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of
the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region
324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb.
Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest
regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday.
New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to
represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class
event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is
expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to
isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Aprkuni 10 Apr
Klass M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Klass X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Apr 116
Prognoositud 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/105/100
90 päeva keskmine 07 Apr 134
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/009
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Apr kuni 10 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 30% |
Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 40% |
Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 03% | 07% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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