Vaata reede, 29 juuli 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jul 29 2204 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 210 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Jul 2005
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 792 (N11E66)
produced today's only M-class event, an M4/Sf at 2208 UTC. The event
was associated with a type II radio sweep and a fast CME that was
centered on the east limb. Region 792 also produced a C3 x-ray event
at 1732 UTC which was associated with erupting prominence material
from the east limb. Observations of Region 792 indicate a 430
millionths, compact, beta-gamma sunspot group. New Region 793
(N14E11) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (30 July - 01 August). There is also
a slight chance for a major flare from Region 792.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream
from a coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues
in progress. The event, which began at 27/2300 UTC attained a new
maximum of 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC. There appears to be an influx of
new energetic particles in response to the M4/CME event of 28/2208
UTC which is prolonging this proton event.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
24 hours (30 July). Conditions should decline to generally unsettled
for 31 July and should be quiet to unsettled for 01 August. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to continue through the
first day (30 July), but should decline thereafter unless additional
strong, eruptive events occur from Region 792.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Julkuni 01 Aug
Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Prooton | 90% | 20% | 15% |
PCAF | Yellow
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 Jul 104
Prognoositud 30 Jul-01 Aug 110/115/120
90 päeva keskmine 29 Jul 096
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Jul 018/028
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 Jul 017/020
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 010/015-007/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Jul kuni 01 Aug
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 20% |
Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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