Vaata kolmapäev, 30 märts 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 089 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 Mar 2011
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated B- and
C-class flares were observed from Region 1176 (S17W37) and Region
1183 (N15E27). Region 1176 showed magnetic simplification and was
classified as an Fso group with a beta magnetic structure. Region
1183 showed a minor increase in spot count and area and was
classified as an Eai group with a beta magnetic structure. Two
filaments disappeared during the period. The first was 9 degrees in
extent, centered near N48E16, and disappeared early in the period.
The second was 7 degrees in extent, centered near S27E21, and
disappeared around mid-period. There was no significant CME activity
associated with either disappearance. A back-sided partial-halo CME
was observed early in the period, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2
images at 29/2024Z, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 1075
km/sec. The source of the CME was an active region about a day
beyond the northeast limb. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (31 March - 02 April) with a chance for moderate
activity (isolated M-class).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period
was observed during 30/0000 - 0300Z, followed by quiet levels for
the rest of the period. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) was
observed at 30/0018Z (12 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity
was associated with a period of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection
-8 nT at 29/2306Z) combined with increased IMF Bt (peak 15 nT at
29/2359Z).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (31
March - 01 April) with a chance for brief active levels due to
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (02 April) as coronal
hole effects subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 31 Markuni 02 Apr
Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 Mar 118
Prognoositud 31 Mar-02 Apr 125/130/135
90 päeva keskmine 30 Mar 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 Mar 002/004
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 30 Mar 007/008
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 31 Mar kuni 02 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 15% |
Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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