Vaata teisipäev, 6 märts 2012 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 066 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Mar 2012

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z

Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective. Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple magnetically and was relatively quiet.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely. There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at 06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March (associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March. Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the third day (09 March).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Markuni 09 Mar
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X30%30%30%
Prooton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       06 Mar 138
  Prognoositud   07 Mar-09 Mar  140/140/135
  90 päeva keskmine        06 Mar 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Mar  011/009
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  009/009
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  013/020-010/015-006/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Mar kuni 09 Mar
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%05%
Väike torm10%10%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%15%
Väike torm35%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm40%10%05%

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