Vaata neljapäev, 10 mai 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 May 10 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 131 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 May 2012
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24
hours with multiple M-class solar flares observed. Region 1476
(N12E08) was responsible for almost all of the activity with 3
M-class events observed, the largest being a M5/2b event at
10/0418Z. Associated with these events, were discrete frequency
radio bursts, Tenflares, and even a Type IV radio sweep. Region 1476
has shown mixed growth and shear effects across the polarities as it
continues to evolve. A weak Earth directed CME was observed in
STEREO COR2 A and B imagery early in the period. Analysis and
current models show this CME joining the current coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Region 1477 (S22E47) was split into two
regions today as SDO magnetogram data indicated the leader and
follower sunspot groups were actually two magnetic bipoles. Leader
group is Region 1477 and follower group is now Region 1478 (S24E55).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events for the next
three days (11 - 13 May) as Region 1476 continues to grow and
evolve.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours with an isolated minor storm period observed at high
latitudes. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE
spacecraft, showed a continued increase in solar wind speeds to
around 620 km/s, a drop off in solar wind density, and the total IMF
began to stabilize around 5 nT. These characteristics are indicative
of a CH HSS. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods for the next three days (11 - 13 May). The increased
activity is due to both the continued CH HSS effects and three weak,
slow moving CMEs intertwined within.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Maykuni 13 May
Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | Green
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 May 131
Prognoositud 11 May-13 May 130/130/130
90 päeva keskmine 10 May 113
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 May 019/025
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 10 May 010/010
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 012/012-010/012-006/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 May kuni 13 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 30% |
Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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