Vaata reede, 12 aprill 2013 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2013 Apr 12 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 12 Apr 2013 until 14 Apr 2013
Päikesepursked ehk loited

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Päikese prootonid

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

10cm fluxAp
12 Apr 2013140009
13 Apr 2013143076
14 Apr 2013146022

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 45 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and might produce flaring activity up to M-level. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) is growing and has developed beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Due to this rapid increase in the number of spots and magnetic complexity, we expect further significant flaring activity (probably up to X-level) from this active region, with a possibility of another Earth-directed CME and an SEP event. The current SEP event associated with the full halo CME of April 11 is still ongoing, although the proton flux is decreasing. We expect a slight and temporary increase of the proton flux at the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with the halo CME of April 11. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 450 km/s) and average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We therefore expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (most probably tomorrow morning) of the interplanetary disturbance (probably a shock and a magnetic cloud) associated with the full halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Apr 2013

Wolf number Catania120
10cm solar flux137
AK Chambon La Forêt008
AK Wingst005
Estimated Ap004
Estimated international sunspot number086 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmRadio burst typesCatania/NOAA
Puuduvad

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Kõik ajad UTC-s

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