Välja antud: 2013 Apr 12 1235 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
12 Apr 2013 | 140 | 009 |
13 Apr 2013 | 143 | 076 |
14 Apr 2013 | 146 | 022 |
Catania sunspot groups 40 and 45 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and might produce flaring activity up to M-level. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) is growing and has developed beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Due to this rapid increase in the number of spots and magnetic complexity, we expect further significant flaring activity (probably up to X-level) from this active region, with a possibility of another Earth-directed CME and an SEP event. The current SEP event associated with the full halo CME of April 11 is still ongoing, although the proton flux is decreasing. We expect a slight and temporary increase of the proton flux at the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with the halo CME of April 11. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 450 km/s) and average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We therefore expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (most probably tomorrow morning) of the interplanetary disturbance (probably a shock and a magnetic cloud) associated with the full halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 09 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 120 |
10cm solar flux | 137 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 005 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 086 - Based on 17 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Radio burst types | Catania/NOAA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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