Välja antud: 2013 May 10 1244 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
10 May 2013 | 133 | 006 |
11 May 2013 | 133 | 007 |
12 May 2013 | 128 | 017 |
Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring eleven C flares and one M3.9 flare. The M flare was produced by AR 11744 (which also released the majority of the C flares) and had its peak around 00:57 UT on May 10. More C-level flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a good chance for an M flare, especially from NOAA AR 11744. A large filament eruption was observed in the southwest by AIA imagery around 17h UT on May 9. A bright associated CME was registered by LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2 A and B around 19h UT. This CME and its shock wave will likely not reach Earth. In the last 24 hours, the IMF has been steady around 4 nT, while solar wind speeds have decreased from about 480 and to 430 km/s. A further decrease is expected, up to May 12, when a weak coronal hole high speed stream may cause solar wind speeds to increase again. Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp = 1) during the past 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for May 10 to 12, with a chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4) on May 12, due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 140 |
10cm solar flux | 128 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 006 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 077 - Based on 21 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Radio burst types | Catania/NOAA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | 0044 | 0057 | 0108 | ---- | M3.9 | VI/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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