Välja antud: 2013 Jul 27 1348 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
27 Jul 2013 | 112 | 013 |
28 Jul 2013 | 114 | 003 |
29 Jul 2013 | 115 | 004 |
Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1800) keeps the beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced several weak C-class flares in the last 12 hours. We expect more C-class flares from this active region, with M-class flares possible but very unlikely. A partial halo CME (angular width around 135 degrees, principal angle 215 degrees) was detected by SOHO/LASCO yesterday first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 18:36 UT. It was accompanied by the C1.5 flare peaking at 19:28 UT situated just behind the south-west limb (a post-eruption arcade was detected by SDO/AIA). The CME speed was around 500 km/s according to the CACTus software. Due to the CME source region position behind the limb, we do not expect the CME-associated interplanetary disturbance to arrive at the Earth. SDO/AIA observed a filament eruption accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade in a bipolar magnetic region situated between Catania sunspot groups 35 and 44 (NOAA ARs 1800 and 1805). It was associated with the C1.8 flare peaking at 21:49 UT yesterday. There is no indication in the SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/COR data that this eruption was accompanied by a CME. The Earth is currently inside the trailing part of the fast solar wind stream. The wind speed is around 440 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is around 5-6 nT. Although Dourbes reported an interval of active geomagnetic conditions earlier today (K = 4 between 6 and 9 UT) in response to the passage of the fast flow, we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 049, based on 07 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 097 |
10cm solar flux | 110 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 017 |
AK Wingst | 012 |
Estimated Ap | 014 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 052 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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