Välja antud: 2013 Aug 12 1221 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
12 Aug 2013 | 114 | 008 |
13 Aug 2013 | 118 | 007 |
14 Aug 2013 | 120 | 007 |
NOAA AR 1817 is expected to be the main player in the coming 48 hours with risks of M class flares. It evolved rather quickly in the past 24 hours, and it is now a complex and elongated sunspot group. The central part shows a wide penumbra making the link between two opposite polarity sunspots. Strong C flares occurred in this region on August 11 (C6.7 at 2131UT and C8.4 at 2158 UT peak time). A M1.5 flare occurred in this region on August 12, 1041 UT peak time. Indirect signatures of CMEs were observed, on disk, with EUV imagers, but data gaps in coronagraphic data during these flares, do not allow to confirm this. We expect active flaring conditions in the next 48 hours. C flares are possible for NOAA AR 1818. We foresee mostly quiet conditions in terms of geomagnetic activity for the next 48 hours. Current interplanetary conditions, as measured by ACE are quiet.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 057, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 110 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | /// |
AK Wingst | 006 |
Estimated Ap | 006 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 054 - Based on 20 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 | 1021 | 1041 | 1047 | ---- | M1.5 | --/1817 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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