Välja antud: 2013 Oct 24 1308 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
24 Oct 2013 | 156 | 015 |
25 Oct 2013 | 156 | 017 |
26 Oct 2013 | 151 | 007 |
There were six M flares and eleven C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was an M9.3 flare released by NOAA AR 11877 with peak time at 00:30 UT on October 24, and caused a Type II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 750 km/s. All C and M flares were produced either by NOAA AR 11875 or NOAA AR 11877, both of which are beta-gamma-delta regions with rapidly evolving topology. In the next 48 hours, X flares from either region are possible. Since both regions are near the central meridian, there is a substantial risk of halo CMEs and a warning condition for proton storms is issued. In the past 24 hours, solar wind has varied between about 310 and 350 km/s. In the same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has varied between 5 and 8 nT. The M4.2 flare of October 22 was accompanied by a faint halo CME, which could deliver a glancing blow to Earth on October 27. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) during the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) with isolated minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) are possible in the second half of October 24 and on October 25, due to a possible glancing blow from the CME from October 22 (observed by LASCO C2 at 4:36 UT). Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for October 26.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 158 |
10cm solar flux | 153 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 005 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 003 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 089 - Based on 18 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23 | 2041 | 2053 | 2059 | ---- | M2.7 | 17/1875 | |||
24 | 0021 | 0030 | 0035 | ---- | M9.3 | N | 18/1877 | II/2I/1 | |
23 | 2333 | 2343 | 2347 | ---- | M1.4 | F | 17/1875 | ||
23 | 2358 | 0008 | 0016 | ---- | M3.1 | 17/1875 | |||
24 | 0959 | 1009 | 1017 | ---- | M2.5 | F | 16/1875 | II/1 | |
24 | 1030 | 1033 | 1037 | ---- | M3.5 | 110 | 16/1875 | II/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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