Vaata neljapäev, 24 oktoober 2013 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2013 Oct 24 1308 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 24 Oct 2013 until 26 Oct 2013
Päikesepursked ehk loited

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
24 Oct 2013156015
25 Oct 2013156017
26 Oct 2013151007

Bulletin

There were six M flares and eleven C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was an M9.3 flare released by NOAA AR 11877 with peak time at 00:30 UT on October 24, and caused a Type II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 750 km/s. All C and M flares were produced either by NOAA AR 11875 or NOAA AR 11877, both of which are beta-gamma-delta regions with rapidly evolving topology. In the next 48 hours, X flares from either region are possible. Since both regions are near the central meridian, there is a substantial risk of halo CMEs and a warning condition for proton storms is issued. In the past 24 hours, solar wind has varied between about 310 and 350 km/s. In the same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has varied between 5 and 8 nT. The M4.2 flare of October 22 was accompanied by a faint halo CME, which could deliver a glancing blow to Earth on October 27. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) during the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) with isolated minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) are possible in the second half of October 24 and on October 25, due to a possible glancing blow from the CME from October 22 (observed by LASCO C2 at 4:36 UT). Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for October 26.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania158
10cm solar flux153
AK Chambon La Forêt005
AK Wingst004
Estimated Ap003
Estimated international sunspot number089 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
23204120532059----M2.717/1875
24002100300035----M9.3N18/1877II/2I/1
23233323432347----M1.4F17/1875
23235800080016----M3.117/1875
24095910091017----M2.5F16/1875II/1
24103010331037----M3.511016/1875II/1

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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