Vaata pühapäev, 27 oktoober 2013 arhiivi

SIDC igapäevane bülletään päikese ja geomagnetilise aktiivsuse kohta

Välja antud: 2013 Oct 27 1205 UTC

SIDC ennustus

Kehtib alates 1230 UTC, 27 Oct 2013 kuni 29 Oct 2013
Päikesepursked ehk loited

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10 cm voolAp
27 Oct 2013158006
28 Oct 2013160023
29 Oct 2013159023

Bülletään

There were two M flares and eleven C flares on the Sun in the past 24 hours. New region NOAA AR 11884 in the East produced an M3.1 flare peaking at 19:27 UT on October 26 while beta-gamma-delta region AR 11882 released an M1.0 flare peaking at 19:53 UT on October 26. The other flares were produced by AR 11882, 11875, 11877 and 11873. In the next 48 hours, M flares are expected, with a chance for X flares. LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2 A and B observed several CMEs on October 26 and 27, among which a partial halo CME first registered by LASCO C2 at 11:24 UT on October 26 (associated with the M1.8 flare of 11:17 UT). This CME could deliver a glancing blow in the second half of October 29. ACE observed a jump in the solar wind at 21:44 UT on October 26. Solar wind speed jumped from about 280 to 310 km/s, while the Interplanetary Magnetic Field jumped from 4.5 to 6.5 nT. A smooth decrease in the phi angle clearly shows rotation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field consistent with the flux rope of an ICME. This jump was probably the result of the arrival of the October 22 (M4.2) CME. Phi jumped from 110 to 270 degrees around 9h UT on October 27, probably indicating the end of the (weak) ICME influence and return to nominal conditions, with solar wind speed around 270 km/s and Interplanetary Magnetic Field around 2 nT. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) during the past 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for the second half of October 27 and the first half of October 28. Active conditions with minor storm intervals are possible on the second half of October 28 and the first half of October 29, due to the expected joint arrival of several CMEs, mainly from October 25. Active geomagnetic levels are possible in the second half of October 29, due to a possible glancing blow by the partial halo CME of October 26.

Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 099, põhineb 13 jaamadel.

Päikese indeksid 26 Oct 2013

Catania Wolfi number///
10cm päikesevoog165
AK Chambon La Forêt005
AK Wingst002
Hinnanguline Ap001
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv090 - Põhineb 20 jaamal

Märkimisväärsete sündmuste kokkuvõte

PäevAlgusMaksLõppLokatsioonTugevusOP10cmCatania/NOAARaadiosignaalipursete tüübid
26104811171134S05E58M1.81N38023/1882
26192419271930S09E81M3.1SF--/1884
26194919531958S07E53M1.0SF23/1882

Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive

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