Välja antud: 2014 Feb 03 1313 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
03 Feb 2014 | 195 | 005 |
04 Feb 2014 | 200 | 003 |
05 Feb 2014 | 195 | 003 |
Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) continue to grow in number of sunspots and in area, keeping respectively beta-gamma and beta-gamma-delta configurations of their photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the M3.1 flare peaking at 18:11 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 28. We expect continuing flaring activity on the M-level, with an isolated X-class flare being probable, especially in the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967). Due to the position of the sunspot group 28 close to the solar central meridian, a CME associated with a flare in this active region may arrive at the Earth. A major CME in this sunspot group may lead to a proton event, so we issue a warning condition. A filament eruption starting today at 05:44 UT to the south of the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) seems to have led only to a narrow CME. The partial halo CME first appearing in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view yesterday at 08:48 UT was a far side CME, so it will not arrive at the Earth. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 360 km/s) solar wind flow with a slightly elevated (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 15 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 190 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 003 |
Estimated Ap | 003 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 089 - Based on 19 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02 | 1401 | 1406 | 1409 | ---- | M1.3 | 71 | 28/1967 | III/1 | |
02 | 1624 | 1629 | 1636 | ---- | M1.0 | 27/1968 | |||
02 | 1805 | 1811 | 1818 | ---- | M3.1 | 180 | 28/1967 | ||
02 | 2124 | 2204 | 2214 | ---- | M1.3 | 28/1967 | III/3 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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