Välja antud: 2014 Feb 10 1311 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
10 Feb 2014 | 167 | 010 |
11 Feb 2014 | 168 | 005 |
12 Feb 2014 | 170 | 008 |
The solar flaring activity is decreasing in last few days. During the past 24 hours four C-class flares and an isolated M class flare were observed. The M1.0 flare which peaked at 16:00 UT on February 9, originated in the active region right behind the east-south-east solar limb. It was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave, an erupting prominence and a post-eruption arcade. The associated full halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:00 UT on February 9. Due to the source region position, we do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. From the currently available data, the prominence eruption (in the north-east quadrant of the Sun) observed at about 05:30 UT on February 10 does not seem to be associated with the Earth directed CME. Three out of seven, currently numbered sunspot groups visible on the solar disc, have beta- gamma configurations of the photospheric magnetic field, and still growing. Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) have rotated behind the west solar limb. Due to the close to the solar limb position of these groups we still keep warning conditions for a proton event. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, with the possibility of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed is currently around 460 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable amounting about 5-6 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled (K<4) geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 09 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 169 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 030 |
AK Wingst | 021 |
Estimated Ap | 021 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 104 - Based on 11 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09 | 1540 | 1617 | 1652 | ---- | M1.0 | --/---- | CTM/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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