Välja antud: 2014 Feb 18 1324 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
18 Feb 2014 | 152 | 007 |
19 Feb 2014 | 153 | 007 |
20 Feb 2014 | 155 | 008 |
Flaring activity has been in the C-class level in past 24h. NOAA AR 1976 produced the strongest one, a C4.7 flare with peak at 01:33 UT. The complex formed by NOAA ARs 1976, 1977 and 1980 continues to produce C-class flares. NOAA AR 1974 is rotating over the west limb, but has still potential to produce M-class flares. Therefore the warning condition for energetic protons is maintained. A full halo CME erupted at 01:25 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2) as a consequence of a filament eruption in the southeast of the visible solar disc. The bulk of the CME is directed to the southeast, but it can reach the Earth. The calculated speed is 663 km/s, giving an arrival time of February 20, at 20:00 UT (with a ~12h error margin). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so. There is still a small possibility that the CME from February 13 arrives to the Earth and cause unsettled to active conditions.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 07 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 131 |
10cm solar flux | 152 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 006 |
Estimated Ap | 005 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 078 - Based on 14 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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