Välja antud: 2014 May 08 1232 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
08 May 2014 | 142 | 011 |
09 May 2014 | 145 | 011 |
10 May 2014 | 145 | 011 |
Catania group 36 (NOAA AR 2051), which already turned behind the west limb, produced another M1.2 flare, peaking at 16:29 UT. Activity is now shifting to the eastern hemisphere where Catania group 34 (NOAA AR 2056) produced the biggest flare of the past 24 hours, an M5.3 flare peaking at 10:07 UT. In thh hour before, X-ray flux was already increased by enhanced emission from the east limb, associated with expected returning NOAA AR 2046. Further flaring in the C level is expected over the coming days especially from the regions on the eastern hemisphere with chances for M flares. The M1.2 flare originating from NOAA AR 2051 (Catania group 36) was associated with a partial halo CME. It was detected by CACTus combined with a number of preceding CME's (and therefore incorrectly classified as full halo) but the main component is first visible in LASCO data at 16:24 UT. Another, full halo, CME, first visible in LASCO data at 3:24 UT seems to originate from the same region, with hence the bulk of the mass expelled in western direction form the Sun Earth line with projected speeds of around 800km/s as seen from STEREO A. Given the location of the source region around the limb both CME's are not expected to be geoeffective. A fast forward shock was observed in ACE solar wind data around 21:35 UT May 7. Solar wind speed jumped from about 330 km/s to about 380 km/s and total magnetic field jumped from around 5 nT to above 8nT. Density and temperature also increased. The shock was possibly a late signature of the May 3 CME. Bz was negative and increasing in magnitude after that event to almost -12nT. It has been varying between -12nT and +10nT afterwards. Wind speed was fluctuating around the 340 km/s level. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet up to the shock arrival. Afterwards, active geomagnetic conditions were observed: NOAA Kp increased to 4 for the 3-6UT interval, local K Dourbes has been at K=4 level since 7 UT. The active geomagnetic conditions are expected to first settle down although unsettled (and possibly active) conditions may accompany the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream later on.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 096, based on 12 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 111 |
10cm solar flux | 146 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 015 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 005 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 083 - Based on 22 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07 | 1607 | 1629 | 1703 | N15E50 | M1.2 | SF | 36/2051 | III/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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