Välja antud: 2014 May 16 1310 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
16 May 2014 | 152 | 007 |
17 May 2014 | 148 | 008 |
18 May 2014 | 146 | 008 |
The solar activity is very low. The strongest flare observed in last 24 hours was a C5.7 flare peaking at 07:04 UT this morning. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) which still has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Currently available data show no clear signatures of CME possibly associated with this flare. The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 20:48 UT on May 15, had angular width of about 180 degrees and projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s. The radio signature of the shock wave, i.e., type II radio burst was observed, associated with this CME. The radio bursts drift rate gives indication of the shock wave speed of about 900 km/s. From the currently available data it seems that the source region of this CME was just behind the east solar limb and the CME will therefore not arrive at the Earth. The Catania sunspot groups 43 and 47 (NOAA ARs 2056 and 2060, respectively) still have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and they are situated in the western solar hemisphere. Therefore, we keep the warning conditions for a proton event. Earth is currently inside of a slow solar wind with a speed of about 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is at the moment 6 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so in the following hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 18 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 167 |
10cm solar flux | 152 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | /// |
Estimated Ap | 006 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 107 - Based on 26 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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