Välja antud: 2015 Jan 31 1226 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
31 Jan 2015 | 156 | 014 |
01 Feb 2015 | 152 | 034 |
02 Feb 2015 | 148 | 019 |
Flaring activity declined with only a few low-level C-class flares, and the strongest event produced by NOAA 2277 at the beginning of the period (M2.4 peaking at 12:16UT). NOAA 2268 simplified significantly. NOAA 2277 kept most of its mixed magnetic polarity portions. No earth- directed CMEs have been observed. The x-ray background flux has decreased to the B6-level. The larger than 10 MeV flux is still enhanced, but started a gradual decline after 21:00UT. There remains a chance on an isolated M-class flare. Solar wind speed ranged mostly between 390 and 450 km/s. Bz varied between -7 and +7 nT, with a sustained negative period from 16:00 till 20:00UT. Unsettled to locally active (K Dourbes = 4) conditions were recorded between 18:00 and 24:00UT. The solar wind is expected to be further disturbed with the arrival of the HSS of the extension of a southern polar CH late on 31 January or on 01 February. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions, with a possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 159 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 018 |
AK Wingst | 014 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 115 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 | 1210 | 1216 | 1221 | ---- | M2.4 | 10 | 78/2277 | I/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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