Välja antud: 2015 Feb 20 1234 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
No forecast
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
20 Feb 2015 | 125 | 007 |
21 Feb 2015 | 130 | 013 |
22 Feb 2015 | 140 | 017 |
Solar activity is gradually increasing to low levels, with two C1 flares originating from NOAA active region (AR) 2286. NOAA ARs 2287, 2288 and 2290 (Catania sunspot groups 88, 87 and 90 respectively) exhibited some growth. The strongest flare was a C1.6 flare, peaking at 10:25 UT on February 20. The C1.1 flare, peaking at 18:06 UT on February 19, was associated with a prominence eruption and a CME (first measurement in LASCO/C2 around 18 UT). The CME is mainly propagating to the southwest (not Earth-directed) and is too slow and too narrow to have any influence on Earth. The solar wind was at nominal levels, with the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field maximally at 6 nT. The solar wind speed is gradually decreasing with current values near 340 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K=1 to 3) at the local level (Dourbes), which is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase on February 22 to active levels due the influence of a high speed stream from a positive northern coronal hole.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 09 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 119 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 011 |
AK Wingst | 012 |
Estimated Ap | 010 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 061 - Based on 12 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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