Välja antud: 2015 Jun 22 1230 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
10 cm vool | Ap | |
---|---|---|
22 Jun 2015 | 136 | 014 |
23 Jun 2015 | 134 | 026 |
24 Jun 2015 | 130 | 007 |
NOAA ARs 2367 produced the largest flare of the past 24 h, an M1.1 with peak at 18:20 UT on June 21. This region and NOAA AR 2371 can produce more M-class (and possible larger) flares. The 10 MeV protons have passed the 100 pfu threshold and continue to increase, this is most likely due to the two interplanetary shocks passing the Earth, plus one more on its way (even though recent activity in NOAA 2367 could also have contributed to the increased levels). A shock arrived to ACE at 15:50 UT on June 21, and a second one at 04:52 UT today. They most likely mark the arrival of the June 18 and 19 CMEs, respectively. Only active geomagnetic conditions were caused, as only the shocks, but not the driver (ICMEs) were detected. The CME from June 21 is expected to arrive later today or early tomorrow, increasing geomagnetic conditions up to (possibly) major storm levels.
Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 049, põhineb 08 jaamadel.
Catania Wolfi number | /// |
10cm päikesevoog | 136 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 020 |
AK Wingst | /// |
Hinnanguline Ap | 013 |
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv | 048 - Põhineb 22 jaamal |
Päev | Algus | Maks | Lõpp | Lokatsioon | Tugevus | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Raadiosignaalipursete tüübid |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21 | 0204 | 0234 | 0311 | ---- | M2.7 | 490 | 92/2371 | II/2IV/2 | |
21 | 0206 | 0236 | 0302 | ---- | M2.6 | 490 | 92/2371 | II/2IV/2 | |
21 | 1810 | 1820 | 1828 | S18W64 | M1.1 | SF | 87/2367 |
Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive
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