Vaata neljapäev, 13 august 2015 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2015 Aug 13 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Aug 2015	097	011
14 Aug 2015	095	011
15 Aug 2015	094	008

Bulletin

Solar activity is low, only B-class flares were reported in the last 24 hours, and we expect to remain so in the coming hours. We expect B-class flares and possibly also an isolated C-class flare, in particular from the NOAA AR 2400 and NOAA AR 2396. The strongest flare reported during last 24 hours was the B7.0 flare peaking at 15:26 UT, on August 12. The flare originated from the bipolar region situated in that moment at about S20 W35. The flare was associated with the prominence eruption, coronal dimming and a partial halo CME. The partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 14:48 UT, had the angular width of about 210 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of about 500 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software package). The bulk of the CME mass was directed southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not very probable that this CME will arrive at the Earth. The arrival of a CME-driven shock wave might be expected in early morning of August 16 producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

The solar wind speed is stable having value of about 380 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is currently 6nT. The sudden change of the magnetic field phi angle, discontinuity observed at about 19:50 UT on August 12, indicates possible crossing of the sector boundary. The fast flow from the equatorial coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian yesterday morning is expected to arrive at the Earth on August 15. The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and we expect them to remain so in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	063 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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