Vaata teisipäev, 25 august 2015 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2015 Aug 25 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Aug 2015	133	006
26 Aug 2015	133	007
27 Aug 2015	133	007

Bulletin

In addition to multiple C flares, NOAA AR 2403 produced another M1 flare peaking at 17:46UT. The region continues to be the only significant region on disk and maintaining its gamma-beta-delta magnetic complexity and even showing some further growth especially in the trailing section. It continues to be a likely source for M flaring over the next days with a slight chance for an X flare. Located on the Western hemisphere the potential for strong flaring from this region also poses an increased risk for a proton event. No significant Earth directed CME's were recorded in coronagraph data. Solar wind shows a further return to nominal conditions with no obvious signatures of any arrival of the 21/22 August CME's. Solar wind speed decreased further to around 380 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 3-5.5nT range with Bz initially variable but mostly negative since midnight. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3 and local K Dourbes 1-3) and are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until the influence of the negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, currently passing the central meridian, sets in which is expected later on August 27 or August 28.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 061, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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