Välja antud: 2015 Aug 30 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
30 Aug 2015 | 100 | 010 |
31 Aug 2015 | 098 | 007 |
01 Sep 2015 | 096 | 011 |
Solar activity remained dominated by active region 2403 which produced an M1.4 flare peaking at 3:30UT. Flaring at M level remains possible from region 2403 as it is rounding the West limb with also a slight chance for an X flare. Afterwards flaring is expected to be atmost at C level. The warning condition for proton events is maintained for another day. SDO/AIA 304 images show a filament eruption near N20E15 after 5:00UT. We await coronagraph data to assess a possible related CME. No Earth directed CME's were recorded so far. Solar wind speed was stable in the 430-470km/s range under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field was in the 5-8nT range with a general downward trend while Bz was variable. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3) with a short episode of active conditions locally at the start of the period (K Dourbes 1-4). Solar wind speeds will show a general decline as the high speed stream influence passes, with associated quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. From late September 1 onwards the equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian late yesterday may become geoeffective.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 19 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 100 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 017 |
AK Wingst | /// |
Estimated Ap | 018 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 055 - Based on 28 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 | 0201 | 0330 | 0423 | ---- | M1.4 | --/2403 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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