Välja antud: 2015 Sep 15 1230 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
15 Sep 2015 | 101 | 016 |
16 Sep 2015 | 104 | 020 |
17 Sep 2015 | 106 | 018 |
On 14 September around 17:00UT, a small bipolar region gradually emerged near and in front of NOAA 2415's leading portion. The magnetic interaction resulted in a series of low-level C-class flares, the strongest being a C1.3 flare peaking at 05:19UT. The other 3 sunspot regions were quiet. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.
More, mostly low-level, C-class flaring is expected, with a small chance on an M-class flare from NOAA 2415.
Solar wind speed varied between 450 and 550 km/s during the period. Bz undulated between -8 and +6 nT, with the interplanetary magnetic field pointing away from the Sun. Quiet to active conditions were observed, with a single minor storming episode during the afternoon of 14 September. The trailing transequatorial extension of a wide northern coronal hole is about to start its transit over the central meridian.
Mostly active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next few days, with another episode of minor storming not excluded. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storming is expected on 18 and 19 September.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 15 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 068 |
10cm solar flux | 097 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 039 |
AK Wingst | 020 |
Estimated Ap | 021 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 052 - Based on 26 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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