Välja antud: 2015 Oct 01 1230 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10 cm vool | Ap | |
---|---|---|
01 Oct 2015 | 120 | 011 |
02 Oct 2015 | 110 | 011 |
03 Oct 2015 | 110 | 006 |
Solar flaring activity is gradually decreasing, with only one M1 (with peak at 13:20 UT) and eight C-class flares, mainly from NOAA active region 2422. NOAA 2422 is slightly decaying but still retains a complex magnetic configuration. NOAA 2427 has slightly grown, but did produce much activity. A series of CMEs were launched on September 30 of which at least two were related to a prominence eruption at the southwest limb. SDO/AIA and PROBA2/SWAP data indicate that solar material starts to lift late September 29/early morning September 30 and part of it falls back south and another part falls to the north. The southern part produces a CME with first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 10:00 UT and shortly after that the NW part produces a CME as well. These two CMEs visually merge later on. They mainly propagate to the West with a speed of 330 km/s (CACTus estimate), but it is not excluded that a glancing arrives at Earth late October 4. The CME activity did cause a rise in the proton flux (at >10MeV) to about 1pfu, though the flux values have not reached the event threshold. Proton flux values are gradually decreasing again. More C-class flares are expected, with a 25% chance for M-class flares.
The slow wind speed was low (with values around 300 km/s) till around 11 UT when the speed slightly increased to about 330 km/s. The phi angle has been varying from negative (towards) to positive (away) orientation. At 11 UT, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reached a peak of 10 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are mainly expected to remain so. There is a some chance for isolated time slots of active conditions (K=4).
Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 092, põhineb 20 jaamadel.
Catania Wolfi number | /// |
10cm päikesevoog | 131 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 006 |
AK Wingst | 003 |
Hinnanguline Ap | 002 |
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv | /// - Põhineb /// jaamal |
Päev | Algus | Maks | Lõpp | Lokatsioon | Tugevus | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Raadiosignaalipursete tüübid |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 | 1318 | 1320 | 1321 | S23W59 | M1.1 | 1N | --/2422 |
Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive
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