Välja antud: 2015 Oct 04 1234 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
04 Oct 2015 | 090 | 016 |
05 Oct 2015 | 080 | 017 |
06 Oct 2015 | 080 | 007 |
During the past period, there were only three active regions on the solar disk. Four lower C-class flares and one M1.0 (peaking at 2:41 UT on October 4) flare were observed. The M1 flare originated from NOAA 2422, though being almost completely behind the West limb. NOAA 2427 now is a beta-gamma region, though it did not produce any significant flares the past 24 hours. Flaring activity at the C-level is expected. An extended equatorial positive polarity coronal hole has reached the central meridian and will be geo-effective within about 3 days.
Solar wind observations show a slight increase in speed (up to 500 km/s) and temperature from 15 UT October 4 on. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was maximally around 10 nT, with a mainly negative Bz component. Solar wind is expected to remain slightly disturbed and possibly indicate the arrival of a glancing blow related to the September 30 CME later today. Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled at the local level (Dourbes K=3) and active (NOAA Kp=4 at 3-6 UT) to even minor storm (NOAA Kp=5 at 9 UT) levels at the planetary level. Geomagnetic activity could be at to active or minor storm conditions during the next 24 hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 021, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 097 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 020 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 009 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 046 - Based on 12 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04 | 0234 | 0241 | 0248 | ---- | M1.0 | --/2422 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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