Välja antud: 2015 Oct 17 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
17 Oct 2015 | 113 | 016 |
18 Oct 2015 | 117 | 015 |
19 Oct 2015 | 120 | 009 |
Nine low-level C-class flares were recorded, the strongest a C4.3 flare from NOAA 2435 peaking at 13:24UT. There may still be an active region at the southeast limb trailing NOAA 2435. NOAA 2434 lost its small delta southeast of the main spot, but developed another one to the north. NOAA 2436 shows some magnetic complexity in its trailing portion. No earth- directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.
There's a chance on an M-class flare from any of the active regions NOAA 2434, 2435, or 2436.
Solar wind speed declined from 400 km/s to 350 km/s, with no sign of a high speed stream (HSS) from the trans-equatorial coronal hole (CH). Bz ranged between -5 and +7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed towards the Sun (negative). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. An equatorial CH will start transiting the central meridian later today and its HSS may affect the geomagnetic environment late on 20 or on 21 October.
Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an active episode.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 072, based on 05 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 109 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 007 |
Estimated Ap | 007 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 051 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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