Välja antud: 2015 Dec 22 1304 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
22 Dec 2015 | 127 | 015 |
23 Dec 2015 | 130 | 009 |
24 Dec 2015 | 133 | 004 |
Five sunspot groups were reported by Catania today. The most of the flaring activity in the past 24 hours was produced by the newly emerged Catania sunspot group 5 (NOAA AR 2473) at the south-east limb, the strongest flare being the M1.6 flare peaking at 03:34 UT today. Only weak and narrow CMEs were detected in association with the flaring activity. Catania sunspot group 4 (NOAA AR 2472), which produced two M-class flares yesterday, became more quiet. We expect the flaring activity at the M-level, in particular from the Catania sunspot group 5 (NOAA AR 2473), with a small chance for an X-class event. The Earth is currently inside a post-ICME solar wind flow, with the speed around 440 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude around 8 nT. The IMF north-south component Bz is fluctuating around zero, so quiet to unsettled conditions (K < 4) were reported by Dourbes and IZMIRAN, and only one interval of active geomagnetic conditions (Kp = 4) was reported by NOAA. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are probable in the coming hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 067, based on 08 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 122 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 021 |
AK Wingst | 040 |
Estimated Ap | 043 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 020 - Based on 13 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22 | 0315 | 0334 | 0348 | S23E75 | M1.6 | SF | 05/2473 | VI/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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