Välja antud: 2016 Feb 04 1235 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
04 Feb 2016 | 120 | 005 |
05 Feb 2016 | 125 | 006 |
06 Feb 2016 | 130 | 006 |
Solar flaring activity has slightly increased, with seven lower C-class flares (strongest C1.8) during the past 24 hours. The NOAA active regions (AR) 2490 (Catania 16), 2492, 2493 and a region currently rounding the East limb were responsible for this activity. Two new (yet unnumbered) regions are developing quite rapidly, near S10E15 and S08W20. A filament eruption was observed SouthEast of the disk center from 8h UT on February 3. The associated CME only left near 16h UT (first observation LASCO/C2) and was very narrow. A rather faint and slow CME (245km/s estimated by CACTus) lifted off at 9h36 UT on February 3 (first measurement at LASCO/C2), propagating to the SouthWest. The source of this CME is currently unclear, but will be analyzed further. More flaring at the C-level is expected, with a slight chance for an M-class flare. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 450 km/s, showing a slight increase. The magnitude of the magnetic field was around 10 nT, with a mainly positive Bz component.
Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet (K=0-2), both at the local (Dourbes) and global level (NOAA estimate). This situation is expected to continue, with a slight chance for time slots of unsettled to active conditions.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 115, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 112 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 007 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 088 - Based on 21 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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